All articles · 2026-10-14 · Pension
Pension savings or ETFs: what yields the most at age 65?
We compare 41 years of pension savings with an ETF portfolio with the same net effort, including tax reduction, final tax, TOB, and the new capital gains tax.
By Jan Hermans, CEO & founder of Lyff.
Short answer
- For the same net effort, pension savings yield about 11,000 euros more at age 65 than an ETF portfolio.
- The annual 30% tax reduction outweighs the higher return of an ETF.
- Pension savings carry a one-off 8% final tax at age 60; after that the capital grows tax-free.
- With ETFs you pay stock exchange tax and, since 2026, a 10% capital gains tax above a 15,000 euro exemption.
- Use your pension savings tax allowance first and invest any extra savings in ETFs.
Pension savings or investing in ETFs yourself: it's one of the questions we get most often. ETFs are cheap, flexible, and generally achieve a higher return in the long term. Pension savings, on the other hand, give you a tax reduction every year. What weighs most heavily? We calculated it for someone who starts at age 25 and withdraws the capital at age 65, under the tax regime that applies since January 1, 2026.
The assumptions: the same net effort
A fair comparison requires that in both scenarios you net the same amount out of your own pocket. Someone who saves 1,050 euros in pension savings gets 30% or 315 euros back via their tax return, but only the following year. Therefore, in year 1, we invest 1,050 euros in both scenarios. From year 2, the ETF investor invests another 735 euros per year: 1,050 euros minus the 315 euros that the pension saver receives back.
- Annual pension savings premium: 1,050 euros
- Annual ETF contribution: 1,050 euros in year 1, then 735 euros per year
- Pension savings tax reduction: 30%, or 315 euros per year
- Gross return pension savings: 7% (typical for a mixed pension savings fund)
- Gross return ETF portfolio: 8%
- Duration: 41 years, from age 25 to 65
How does the capital grow?
Because the pension saver has a larger amount generating returns each year, their capital leads for most of the race. The higher return of the ETF only catches up late in the process.
- 35 years: pension savings 17,733 euros, ETF 13,931 euros
- 45 years: pension savings 50,406 euros, ETF 41,561 euros
- 55 years: pension savings 114,679 euros, ETF 101,214 euros
- 59 years: pension savings 155,309 euros, ETF 141,273 euros
- 60 years (after pension savings final tax): pension savings 154,010 euros, ETF 153,367 euros
- 65 years: pension savings 222,468 euros, ETF 229,998 euros (before taxes on sale)
Pension savings: 8% final tax at age 60
The annual tax reduction is offset by a one-time final tax of 8%, the so-called anticipatory levy [anticipatieve heffing]. This is automatically withheld in the year you turn 60, whether you withdraw the money or not. In our example, this is 12,425 euros on a capital of 155,309 euros. After that, no further tax is due: the growth between 60 and 65 years is entirely net. At age 65, you are left with 222,468 euros.
ETFs: TOB and the new capital gains tax
With an ETF, you pay the tax on stock exchange transactions (TOB) with every purchase and sale. For a foreign, non-Belgian registered accumulating ETF, this is 0.12% (maximum 1,300 euros per transaction). A Belgian registered accumulating ETF pays 1.32% (maximum 4,000 euros), which makes the calculation significantly heavier.
Since 2026, the 10% capital gains tax has been added. In our example, upon sale at age 65, it looked like this:
- Value of ETF portfolio at age 65: 229,998 euros
- TOB on sale (0.12%): 276 euros
- Total invested over 41 years: 30,450 euros
- Taxable capital gain: 199,272 euros
- Exemption: 15,000 euros
- Capital gains tax (10%): 18,427 euros
- Net payout: 211,295 euros
The final result
Pension savings in this scenario yield a net 222,468 euros, the ETF portfolio 211,295 euros. That is a difference of approximately 11,173 euros in favor of pension savings, despite the lower return. The annual tax reduction of 30% and the limited final tax of 8% outweigh the extra percentage return of the ETF and the capital gains tax on sale. If you opt for a Belgian-registered ETF with 1.32% TOB, the difference becomes even greater.
What does this mean for you?
Pension savings and ETFs are not an either-or story. Pension savings are fiscally limited: you can only invest a limited amount in them annually. It is therefore logical to first utilize that fiscal space and then invest whatever else you want to set aside in ETFs, where you have more freedom to withdraw at any time. Entrepreneurs also have other levers, such as VAPZ (Voluntary Supplementary Pension for the Self-Employed), POZ (Supplementary Pension for the Self-Employed), or an IPT (Individual Pension Commitment) via the company, which often offer even more tax advantages. Read more about IPT via the company.
The right mix depends on your status, age, income, and when you need the money. We would be happy to make a customized calculation for you.
Frequently asked questions
Is a pension savings plan better than investing in ETFs?
In our 41-year simulation, yes: pension savings yield 222,468 euros net, an ETF portfolio 211,295 euros for the same net effort. The annual 30% tax reduction outweighs the ETF's extra percentage point of return.
How much tax do you pay on pension savings?
You pay a one-off final tax of 8% in the year you turn 60. Any further growth until withdrawal is then fully tax-free.
Which taxes apply to ETFs?
You pay the stock exchange tax (TOB) on purchase and sale: 0.12% for a foreign accumulating ETF or 1.32% for a Belgian-registered one. Since 2026 there is also a 10% capital gains tax, with a 15,000 euro exemption.
Can I combine pension savings and ETFs?
Yes. Pension savings are capped for tax purposes, so it makes sense to use that room first and then invest additionally in ETFs, which you can withdraw at any time.
Are the returns in this comparison guaranteed?
No. The 7% and 8% gross returns are assumptions. Actual returns can differ sharply, including negatively. This is an indicative simulation, not investment advice.
Important assumptions
- The returns of 7% and 8% are assumptions and not a guarantee. Actual returns can differ significantly, including negatively.
- With a different starting age or duration, the results change.
- The capital gains tax has been applied once to the full sale at age 65, with an exemption of 15,000 euros.
- The scenario starts today, entirely under the tax regime applicable since January 1, 2026, without transitional rules.
- This is an indicative simulation and not tax, legal, or investment advice.